Analyzing the threat
September 30, 2022
In the American Legion Magazine, General H.R. McMaster on our record of predicting future wars observes, “And that record is zero percent.”
We have speculation about future domestic terrorist activity, observe the imperialism of Russia, bullying by North Korea, and recognize the threat from China, but need we prioritize the imminence of each? Military and civilian intelligence should already be doing that.
We hear words like “unthinkable,” and “unimaginable,” categorizing human and nature’s events, and though we may assume preparedness, there are always unexpected scenarios. That always happens when you assume.
Recalling the 911 attacks, they were already thought out in Tom Clancy’s 1994 novel, “Debt of Honor” and Dale Brown referred to using airliners as weapons in “Storming Heaven,” published the same year, complete with illustrations.
Kamikaze attacks by the Japanese in the Pacific Theater in World War II were a 1910 prediction by Billy Mitchell. They got the idea from one of us.
The Dark Net is flush with ideas to commit mayhem and has sites to buy plans and materials. We do have satellite surveillance that was not a luxury in previous wars. It would have been extremely helpful in VietNam where many activities by the North Vietnamese went undetected until the first strike.
Domestic terrorism may be averted by monitoring the social sites of known seditionist groups and individual posts are sometimes a prediction of school shootings. Where do we draw the line and have we been spared today by safeguards or has something been overlooked?